GingerV,

The statistics about terrorism, and by implication the results of the war upon it, are subjects of active debate. The link I have provided below provides three charts, and the supporting numbers, for three significant measurements: frequency (how many occurred during a year), and how many were killed and how many were injured. The red plot shows the statistics provided by the US State Department, the blue plot is that of numbers provided by the RAND organization, an organization independent of the US government. I hope that the source of the data will not be used to derail the discussion.

http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/ter...intlterror.html

I call upon any Pixie who is adept in statistical analysis to assist here. My familiarity with the discipline is more than 20 years old.

While this data set is modest, I believe that a positive trend line may be plotted on all three charts from the start of the recording in the late 60s through the late 80s. This would indicate that terrorism as an institution was growing.

All three charts show a dip in the 1989 – 1990 period.

The Frequency and Fatality charts also show a negative trend line for the period from the late 80s through the late 90s, a period of global economic growth. This would indicate that terrorism as an institution was decreasing. The Injury chart differs sharply beginning in 1993. I’m unsure of the cause, perhaps a change in weaponry, or perhaps tactics.

Following the decline of global economic growth at the end of the 1990s, the frequency and magnitude of terrorism incidents increase. The 2001 Fatality plot is anomalous, skewed by the 9/11 incident.

Focusing on the period 1998 – 2003 (the last year for which both data sets are complete), the numbers show a decrease in both injuries as well as fatalities. The RAND & DOS numbers for terrorism incidents during 2003 are at variance. We’d need to find out if there was a change in reporting criteria for either organization.

These numbers fail to support the suggestion made by some that the War on Terrorism is a failure. I think that now it is your opportunity to provide data sets from other reputable organizations, with a similar analysis. Perhaps the EU provides statistics on this subject. That, coupled with a RAND-like apples-to-apples comparison from some other respectable European institution unaffiliated with the official line would help dispel, or at least mitigate any American spin on the numbers.

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Eudaimonia